[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 14 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 13 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 13/1636 UT and LASCO
C3 imagery up to 13/1642 UT. The solar wind varied mostly between
440 km/s and 500 km/s during the UT day today. At the time of
writing of this report (2300 UT), solar wind speed is 490 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 1 nT and 6 nT today.
The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between -4 nT and +3 nT
during this time. The particle density of the solar wind stayed
mostly below the normal value of 10 ppcc. Very low levels of
solar activity may be expected for the next three days (UT days
14 to 16 July). Effect of two small and weak coronal holes may
cause some strengthening in the solar wind stream during the
next three days (14 to 16 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101110
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 1 11100110
Townsville 2 -1101111
Learmonth 4 12211111
Alice Springs 2 21100101
Gingin 2 11101111
Canberra 2 12101000
Launceston 4 22211110
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01101000
Casey 6 23221121
Mawson 16 43222153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2231 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
15 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
16 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region
today (UT day 13 July). Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
with small possibility of isolated unsettled conditions may be
expected for the next two days (UT days 14 and 15 July). Mostly
quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity with the possibility
of isolated active periods may be expected on 16 July due to
the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a small coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 13 July) with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some mid- and high-latitude regions. Strong sporadic E layers
were recorded during late hours of the local day at some mid-
and high latitude locations. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days (UT days 14 to 16 July) with
the possibility of some MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions on UT day 16 July due to the possibility of some rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day (UT day 16 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 6 Mostly near predicted monthly values, some periods
of minor MUF depressions possible
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 13 July) with periods of minor to
mild MUF enhancements in the Southern Australian and Antarctic
regions. Strong sporadic E layers were observed during late hours
of the local day in Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
(UT days 14 to 16 July) with the possibility of some MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions on UT day 16 July due to the
possibility of some rise in geomagnetic activity on this day
(UT day 16 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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