[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 18 issued 2337 UT on 12 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 13 09:37:50 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 12 July). 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 12/1436 UT and LASCO 
C3 imagery up to 12/1442 UT. The solar wind showed a gradual 
increase from 370 kms to 470 km/s during the UT day today. At 
the time of writing of this report (2300 UT), solar wind speed 
is at 473 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 1 nT 
and 9 nT today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between 
-6 nT and +7 nT during this time. The particle density of the 
solar wind stayed mostly close to the normal value (10 ppcc). 
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
three days (UT days 13 to 15 July). Two small and weak coronal 
holes may cause some strengthening in the solar wind stream during 
the next three days (13 to 15 July)

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221210
      Cocos Island         4   12221201
      Darwin               4   12221201
      Townsville           5   -2221211
      Learmonth            5   12222210
      Alice Springs        4   12221200
      Gingin               5   12222210
      Canberra             3   02111210
      Launceston           4   12212210
      Hobart               3   11111211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   01311100
      Casey                6   23221211
      Mawson              14   23333134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1223 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
14 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
15 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region 
today (UT day 12 July). Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
with small possibility of isolated unsettled conditions may be 
expected for the next three days (UT days 13 to 15 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT 
day 12 July) with periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three 
days (UT days 13 to 15 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 12 July) with periods of minor to 
significant MUF enhancements. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days (UT 
days 13 to 15 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:   12.5 p/cc  Temp:    26900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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