[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 12 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 11 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 11/1537 UT and LASCO
C3 imagery up to 11/1542 UT. The solar wind speed stayed mostly
between 310 and 350 km/s until 1800 UT and then showed an increase
to around 380 km/s. At the time of writing of this report (2300
UT), solar wind speed is at 367 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 3 nT and 10 nT today. The Bz component of IMF varied
mostly between -6 nT and +5 nT during this time. The particle
density of the solar wind stayed above average (>10 ppcc) from
0200 UT until 1900 UT reaching a maximum of 28 particles ppcc
at 0632 UT. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days (UT days 12 to 14 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 12332211
Cocos Island 5 12222211
Darwin 7 22322211
Townsville 7 22322221
Learmonth 7 12332211
Alice Springs 6 12322211
Gingin 5 01232111
Canberra 5 11232110
Launceston 7 12332210
Hobart 4 11232100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 00144000
Casey 8 12333211
Mawson 15 02333235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 7 2322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 5 Quiet
13 Jul 5 Quiet
14 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled across the
Aus region today (UT day 11 July). Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity may be expected for the next three days (UT days 12
to 14 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 11 July) with periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days (UT days 12 to 14 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 11 July) with periods of minor to
moderate MUF enhancements. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days (UT days
12 to 14 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 21000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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