[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 11 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 10 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/1536 UT. The solar
wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 370 km/s to 330 km/s
during the UT day today. Today the IMF Bt varied mostly between
1 nT and 11 nT reaching a maximum of 13 nT at 1207 UT, whereas
the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between -3 nT and +7 nT
during this time. Very low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12212100
Cocos Island 4 12212210
Darwin 5 12212211
Townsville 6 12223211
Learmonth 6 12323100
Alice Springs 3 12212100
Gingin 4 12222100
Canberra 3 12212000
Launceston 3 12212100
Hobart 3 12212000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01122000
Casey 4 13222000
Mawson 12 34334100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
12 Jul 5 Quiet
13 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region
today (UT day 10 July). Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 July)
with a small possibility of isolated unsettled periods on UT
day 11 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today
(UT day 10 July) with MUFs near predicted monthly values
with periods of minor to moderate enhancements in some
mid- and high-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 10 July) with MUFs mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of minor to moderate
enhancements in the Southern Aus regions. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days (UT days 11 to 13 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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