[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 10 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 75/13 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 09 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disk from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed today via
LASCO
C2 imagery up to 09/2124 UT. The solar wind speed varied between
440 km/s and 380 km/s, gradually decreasing on average. The IMF
Bt during the last 24 hours were mostly between 1 nT and 4 nT;
the Bz component of IMF was mostly between -2.5 nT and +3 nT.
There is some possibility for the solar wind stream to show some
strengthening on UT day 10 July due to the filament disappearance on 5 July.
Very low to low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next three days (UT days 10 to 12 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000100
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11000101
Learmonth 2 11100200
Alice Springs 0 01000100
Gingin 0 10000100
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 11010100
Hobart 0 10000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 22110100
Mawson 3 22210002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
11 Jul 6 Quiet
12 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region
today (UT day 09 July). Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected on UT days 11 and 12 July. Some enhancements
in the geomagnetic activity up to unsettled levels with a small
possibility of isolated active periods may be possible on UT
day 10 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 09 July, MUFs were generally near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor enhancements observed in
some high latitude areas. Mostly near monthly predicted MUFs
are expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 2 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 09 July, MUFs were generally near predicted
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor enhancements
observed in the Southern Australian areas. Near monthly predicted
MUFs are expected in the region for the next three UT days, 10-12
July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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