[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 9 09:30:26 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 08 July. There 
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar 
disk. A recurrent active region has just rotated onto the East 
limb. For the next 3 UT days, 09-11 July, solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low to low levels, with a chance of C-class 
flare due to the flaring potential of from forthcoming region. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 08 July, 
via LASCO C2 imagery up to 08/1424 UT. The solar wind speed varied 
between 450 km/s and 500 km/s, gradually decreasing on average. 
The solar wind speed at the time of writing this report (08/2300 
UT) was 440 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours were mostly 
steady near 5 nT; the Bz component of IMF were between -2 nT 
and 2 nT. The outlook for today (09 July) is for the solar wind 
speed to decrease gradually from moderate to nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101001
      Cocos Island         1   11101000
      Darwin               2   11101011
      Townsville           2   12101011
      Learmonth            2   11111101
      Alice Springs        1   11101000
      Gingin               2   11101111
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Launceston           2   11101111
      Hobart               1   01100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   22222111
      Mawson              22   43323155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3211 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     5    Quiet
10 Jul     5    Quiet
11 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 08 July. The outlook for 
today (UT day 09 July) is for the magnetic activity to be mostly 
at quiet levels and occasionally it may reach unsettled levels 
because the Earth is still under the influence of moderately 
elevated solar wind speeds.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days (9-11 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 08 July, MUFs were generally near predicted 
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor enhancements 
observed during the nighttime over most Australian region. Incidence 
of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian ionosonde sites, 
namely Perth, Darwin, Sydney and Canberra. Near monthly predicted 
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 09-11 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   244000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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