[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 18 issued 2349 UT on 27 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Jan 28 10:49:06 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 27Jan. Solar wind speed 
decreased from ~470km/s at 00UT to be ~400km/s at the time of 
this report. Bz, the north-south component of the IMF ranged 
between +2 and -4nT over the UT day, with a notable sustained 
southward period between 07UT-13UT. Solar wind parameters are 
expected to be enhanced at times over the next 3 days due to 
minor coronal hole effects. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next 3 days as the visible disk is currently 
spotless.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21221121
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           3   21111111
      Learmonth            6   21221222
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Gingin               4   20111221
      Camden              11   32333222
      Canberra             3   21111111
      Launceston           6   22221122
      Hobart               4   21211111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   11113100
      Casey               14   34432222
      Mawson              19   53222344
      Davis               17   33323352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3231 0011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the AUS/NZ region for 
27Jan. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days with 
possible isolated Unsettled to Active periods due to minor coronal 
hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed again for 27Jan with 
notable enhancements and depressed MUFs in both northern and 
southern hemisphere. Similar HF conditions expected for the next 
3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jan    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for AUS/NZ region for 
27Jan with enhanced MUF's for Equatorial regions during local 
day and depressed conditions at times for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Normal to Fair ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions. Similar variable HF conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's of 10%-30% 
at times for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   211000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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