[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 29 10:30:41 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 28Jan. Solar wind speed
decreased from ~420km/s at 00UT to be ~350km/s at the time of
this report. Bz, the north-south component of the IMF ranged
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar wind parameters are expected
to range between nominal values to slightly enhanced at times
over the next 3 days due to the influence of a equatorial located
negative polarity coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next 3 days as the visible disk is currently
spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21013111
Darwin 2 10102111
Townsville 5 21113211
Learmonth 5 21013212
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 5 21013121
Camden 15 ----3-3-
Canberra 3 10013101
Launceston 5 21123201
Hobart 3 10013101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 10014200
Casey 10 33332112
Mawson 13 32112235
Davis 7 22132122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for the AUS/NZ
region for 28Jan. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
the next 3 days with possible isolated Active periods due to
weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed again for 28Jan with
notable enhancements and depressed MUFs in both northern and
southern hemisphere. Similar HF conditions expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial regions during
local night and during local day for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Normal ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's of 10%-30% at times
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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