[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 18 issued 2348 UT on 26 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Jan 27 10:48:40 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26Jan. Solar wind speed 
increased from ~425km/s at 00UT to be 500km/s at 07UT. Since 
then solar wind speed has at times been slightly enhanced, ranging 
from 465km/s to 520km/s. Bz, the north-south component of the 
IMF fluctuated between +7nT and -5nT for the first half of the 
UT day and is currently ranging between +/-3nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be enhanced at times over the next 3 days due 
to minor coronal hole effects. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next 3 days as the visible disk is currently 
spotless.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22210022
      Darwin               3   22210011
      Townsville           4   22210112
      Learmonth            5   22210122
      Culgoora             3   22210020
      Gingin               5   22210032
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             4   22210012
      Launceston           5   22310112
      Hobart               5   22310012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   21300001
      Casey               23   55531123
      Mawson              22   54322145
      Davis               12   33432122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3322 1232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan     7    Quiet
28 Jan     7    Quiet
29 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the UT day 26Jan. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible isolated 
Unsettled to Active periods due to minor coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed again for 26Jan with 
notable enhancements and depressed MUFs in both northern and 
southern hemisphere. Similar HF conditions expected for the next 
3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jan     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for AUS/NZ region for 
26Jan with minor overnight enhancements for Northern AUS regions 
and occasional depressions for both Northern AUS/Equatorial regions 
during local day. Southern AUS/NZ regions near predicted monthly 
values and Fair ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar 
variable HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days with 
possible depressed MUF's of 10%-30% at times for Northern AUS 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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