[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 18 issued 2354 UT on 22 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 23 10:54:05 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
region 2696 (S11W71) producing a B9.5 flare and an associated
CME. The CME was directed to the southwest and is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated
under the influence of a negative polarity coronal holes, ranging
between 500km/s to 580kms and is ~520km/s at the time of this
report. The north-south component of IMF, Bz ranged between -5nT
and 7nT over the UT day. Very Low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 23221222
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 7 32221222
Learmonth 9 22222323
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 9 23121233
Camden 7 23221222
Canberra 7 23221222
Launceston 11 33321332
Hobart 8 33221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 23221331
Casey 28 55442235
Mawson 38 55332366
Davis 24 44432345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1022 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for 23Jan with solar
wind speed expected to remain slightly elevated. Anticipated
diminishing influence of the current negative polarity coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream from 24Jan which will see solar
wind speeds decrease and mostly Quiet conditions for 24Jan-25Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed 22Jan with
occasional minor MUF depressions and notable sporadic E at mid
latitudes stations in the AUS/NZ region. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions observed for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ regions as well as notable sporadic E conditions for SWS
Canberra,Camden,Brisbane and Townsville stations between 10UT-16UT.
Minor geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of solar
activity for 23Jan may result in minor to moderate MUF depressions
23 January. HF conditions should see a return to predicted monthly
values from 25 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list