[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 18 issued 2343 UT on 23 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 24 10:43:06 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23Jan with no further
flare activity from region 2696 (S11W85) which is expected to
rotate of the visible disk in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed
decreased over the UT day due to the waning influence of the
narrow southern hemisphere located recurrent negative-polarity
coronal hole. Solar wind decreased from ~525km/s at 00UT to be
~~425km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz ranged between +2nT and -3nT over the UT day. Solar
wind speed is expected to decrease to ambient levels over the
next 24 hours. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21112201
Darwin 1 1100110-
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 5 200123--
Culgoora 1 11001101
Gingin 4 211112--
Camden 15 33333---
Canberra 2 11002100
Launceston 4 22112201
Hobart 2 12102100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 110021--
Casey 22 65422211
Mawson 12 45211112
Davis 11 34322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2222 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 6 Quiet
26 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected over the next 3 days with chance
of Unsettled periods due to waning influence of the narrow negative-polarity
southern hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 23Jan with notable
northern hemisphere enhancements and depressed MUFs in the southern
hemisphere. Continued sporadic E at mid latitudes stations in
the AUS/NZ region. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 23 January
and is current for 23-24 Jan. Notable depressed MUFs observed
for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions and continued sporadic
E conditions for SWS Canberra,Camden,Brisbane,Norfolk IS. and
Townsville stations between 08UT-16UT. Normal ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. With Very Low solar activity, similar
conditions are expected for 24Jan-25Jan. Chance of increased
ionospheric support and MUFs near predicted monthly values for
26Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 334000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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