[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 22 10:30:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 21 January).
There are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from
the earthside. Due to the previously anticipated effect of a
coronal hole the solar wind speed showed a further gradual increase
from 400 to 490 km/s today after passing the peak speed of 517
km/s at 2012 UT. The solar wind particle density stayed above
the normal values of 10 ppcc between 0400UT and 1340 UT reaching
a peak of ~20 ppcc at 0745 UT. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz, varied mostly between +10/-7 nT today, whereas the total
IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 2 and 12 nT during this time.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days (22 to 24 January).ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 21/1930UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 11233222
Darwin 6 11132122
Townsville 8 21233222
Learmonth 9 21133232
Culgoora 7 11133222
Gingin 8 10123332
Camden 8 11233222
Canberra 7 11223222
Launceston 12 12234233
Hobart 8 11224222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 01225222
Casey 22 34553232
Mawson 18 33233353
Davis 17 23444332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2231 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity showed some
rise, up to unsettled levels, today (UT day 21 January) in the
Australian region. Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected on 22 and 23 January due to the effect of two
different coronal holes. Some active periods may be possible
on 22 January. Geomagnetic activity is expected to lower down
to mostly quiet levels on 24 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
23 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (21
January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions at midlatitudes.
Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. Expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels
of solar activity may result in minor to moderate MUF depressions
on 22 and 23 January. HF conditions may return to more normal
levels on 24 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan -2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Jan -2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Jan 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions today (21 January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions
in the region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident.
Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity and continued very
low levels of solar activity may result in minor to moderate
MUF depressions in the region on 22 and 23 January. HF conditions
may return to more normal levels on 24 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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