[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 21 10:30:53 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 20 January).
A B1.7 flare was observed at 0455 UT from the decaying region
2696. The region has now diminished and there are no sunspots
on the solar disk visible from the earthside. Due to the previously
anticipated effect of a coronal hole the solar wind speed showed
a gradual increase from 380 to 425 km/s today after passing the
peak speed of 454 km/s at 1900UT. The solar wind particle density
stayed above the normal values of 10 ppcc until around 1100 UT
after reaching a peak of 19 ppcc at 0500 UT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +6/-8 nT today, whereas
the total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 1 and 10 nT during this
time. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days (21 to 23 January).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22321212
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 7 22321222
Learmonth 9 32321312
Culgoora 7 22321212
Gingin 7 22322212
Camden 7 22321222
Canberra 7 22321212
Launceston 10 23422222
Hobart 10 23421222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 22522110
Casey 21 45532223
Mawson 24 55432234
Davis 21 35532241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1322 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 12 Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible.
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity showed some
rise, up to unsettled levels, today (UT day 20 January) in the
Australian region. Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity,
with some possibility of isolated active periods, may be expected
on 21 and 23 January due to the effect of two different coronal
holes. Activity is expected to lower down to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels on 22 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (20
January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions in low latitude
regions. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident.
Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity and continued very
low levels of solar activity may result in minor to significant
MUF depressions on 21 and 23 January. HF conditions may be more
normal on 22 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan -4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
22 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan -2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions today (20 January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions
in the Northern parts of the region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity
and continued very low levels of solar activity may result in
minor to significant MUF depressions in the region on 21 and
23 January. HF conditions may be more normal on 22 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 92600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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