[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 20 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 19 January).
There is one sunspot region (2696, S12W29 at 2245UT/19 January)
on the solar disk visible from the earth. Due to a solar sector
boundary crossing and subsequent effect of a coronal hole the
solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 325 to 380 km/s
today. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between
+4/-6 nT today, whereas the total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between
5 and 9 nT during this time. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (20 to 22 January) with
a slight chance of isolated C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 6 22221122
Culgoora 5 22221022
Gingin 7 22220133
Camden 7 22321122
Canberra 6 22320022
Launceston 8 23321122
Hobart 5 22320012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 22330011
Casey 14 34332133
Mawson 45 35532267
Davis 13 23432133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Jan 12 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels across the
Australian region today (UT day 19 January). Enhancements in
geomagnetic activity to active levels are expected on 20 and
21 January due to the effect of a high speed solar wind from
a negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to show gradual decline to unsettled and then quiet
levels on 22 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
21 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (19
January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions in some mid-latitude
regions. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident.
Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity and continued very
low levels of solar activity may result in minor to significant
MUF depressions on 20 and 21 January. HF conditions may improve
towards more normal levels on 22 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
21 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
22 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions today (19 January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions
in the Southern parts of the region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity
and continued very low levels of solar activity may result in
minor to significant MUF depressions in the region on 20 and
21 January. HF conditions may improve towards more normal levels
on 22 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 11600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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