[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 19 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 18 January).
There is one sunspot region (2696, S12W15 at 2300UT/18 January)
on the solar disk visible from the earth. This is a stable region
with beta magnetic configuration. This region produced a B9.7
flare that peaked at 0735UT. Although the region 2696 group seems
stable, but due to the differential rotation between the two
opposite polarity parts of the group, there is slightly increased
chance of a C-class flare from this region. Solar wind speed
stayed mostly between 310 and 340 km/s today. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/-3 nT today, whereas
the total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 1 and 5 nT during this
time. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days (19 to 21 January) with a slight chance of isolated
C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 10000111
Darwin 1 11000110
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 1 10001101
Alice Springs 0 00000101
Culgoora 1 10000111
Gingin 2 20000111
Camden 1 10000111
Canberra 0 00000110
Launceston 2 01101111
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson 5 12111113
Davis 6 32222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Jan 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels across the
Australian region today (UT day 18 January). Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected in this region on 19 January with some
possibility of slight enhancements in the activity from late
hours on this day due to the expected arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream from a negative polarity recurrent coronal
hole around this time. Geomagnetic activity may rise to active
levels on 20 and 21 January due to the effect of this coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
21 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today
(UT day 18 January). Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also
evident. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 19 January
with some possibility of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity
is expected to stay at very low levels during this period, which
may result in the weakening of ionising radiation. An expected
rise in geomagnetic activity from late hours on 19 January and
continued very low levels of solar activity may cause minor to
significant MUF depressions on 20 and 21 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
21 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 18 January). Periods of Sporadic
E blanketing were also evident. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected in the region on 19 January with some possibility
of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity is expected to
stay at very low levels during this period, which may result
in the weakening of ionising radiation. An expected rise in geomagnetic
activity from late hours on 19 January and continued very low
levels of solar activity may cause minor to significant MUF depressions
in the region on 20 and 21 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 69900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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