[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 18 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 17 January).
There is one sunspot region (2696, S13E01 at 2300UT/17 January)
on the solar disk visible from the earth. This is a stable region
with beta magnetic configuration. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 380 to 320 km/s today. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/-3 nT today, whereas the
total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 3 and 4 nT during this time.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days (18 to 20 January).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 1 10111001
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 0 00011000
Alice Springs 1 11011001
Culgoora 1 11111000
Gingin 1 10110000
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 0 00110000
Launceston 2 11111001
Hobart 2 11111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 8 23422001
Mawson 5 21212103
Davis 6 12322201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2002 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels across the
Australian region today (UT day 17 January). Quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected in this region for the next two days
(18 and 19 January). Enhancements to unsettled levels in geomagnetic
activity are possible late on 19 January due to the expected
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole around this time. Geomagnetic activity
may rise to active levels on 20 January due to the effect of
this coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels with some
periods of small MUF enhancements as well as period of small
MUF depressions in some low latitude regions. Periods of Sporadic
E blanketing were also evident. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next two days (18 and 19 January) with some
possibility of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels during this period, which
may result in the weakening of ionising radiation. An expected
rise in geomagnetic activity on 20 January may also cause some
MUF depressions on 20 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 2 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 2 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels in Australian
region with some periods of small MUF enhancements as well as
period of small MUF depressions in the Northern parts of the
region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected in the region for the next
two days (18 and 19 January) with some possibility of minor MUF
depressions as the solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels during this period, which may result in the weakening
of ionising radiation. An expected rise in geomagnetic activity
on 20 January may also cause some MUF depressions in the region
on 20 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 195000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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