[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 5 10:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 Jan, with no
flares. There is currently one numbered solar region on the visible
disk, it was inactive. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days (5-7 Jan). No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on
UT day 4 Jan. During 4 Jan the solar wind speed ranged between
370 and 410 km/s. The IMF Bt varied near its nominal values,
2-5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied in the range -3/+2 nT.
During the next UT day, 5 Jan, the solar wind speed is expected
to vary in the vicinity of its nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11201011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 3 21201111
Learmonth 3 21201020
Alice Springs 2 11201010
Gingin 2 21101011
Camden 2 11201011
Canberra 2 11200011
Launceston 6 12312121
Hobart 3 12201011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 22101010
Casey 12 34421122
Mawson 10 22211144
Davis 8 13322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0111 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 4 Quiet
06 Jan 4 Quiet
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 4 Jan. During the next
3 UT days, 5-7 Jan, magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
at quiet levels. In the second half of 7 Jan the geomagnetic
activity can reach unsettled levels due to expected arrival of
the corotating interaction region associated with the recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depression are likely in the Southern
hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
06 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 4 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are likely
for the next UT day, 5 Jan. During the next two UT days, 6-7
Jan, the MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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