[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 6 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 Jan, with no
flares. There is currently one numbered solar region on the visible
disk, it was inactive. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days (6-8 Jan). No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on
UT day 5 Jan. During 5 Jan the solar wind speed was gradually
decreasing from 390 km/s to 330 km/s. The IMF Bt varied near
its nominal values, 2-4 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied in
the range -3/+4 nT. During the next UT day, 6 Jan, the solar
wind speed is expected to remain near its background values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 10111010
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 4 11102221
Alice Springs 2 11102110
Culgoora 2 11101111
Gingin 4 11111221
Camden 3 12111110
Canberra 3 01101130
Launceston 5 12112221
Hobart 3 12101210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 02010010
Casey 13 44322222
Mawson 19 23223326
Davis 9 24222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 4 Quiet
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 5 Jan. During the next
2 UT days, 6-7 Jan, magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
at quiet levels. In the second half of 7 Jan the geomagnetic
activity can reach unsettled levels due to expected arrival of
the corotating interaction region associated with the recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 3 UT days, 6-8 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 5 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. During the next three UT days, 6-8 Jan, the
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
Minor MUF depressions are likely for 6 Jan during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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