[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jan 4 10:30:33 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 Jan, with no 
flares. There is currently no numbered solar region on the visible 
disk. Very low levels of solar flare activity are expected for 
the next three UT days (4-6 Jan). No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 3 Jan. 
During 3 Jan the solar wind speed ranged between 410 and 350 
km/s, decreasing on average. The IMF Bt was varying near its 
nominal values, 2-6 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied in the 
range -4/+2 nT. During the next UT day, 4 Jan, the solar wind 
speed is expected to vary in the vicinity of its background values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11211100
      Cocos Island         1   01111100
      Darwin               2   11111100
      Townsville           3   01211111
      Learmonth            3   11221200
      Alice Springs        3   11211200
      Gingin               2   11210100
      Camden               6   12231221
      Canberra             1   01110100
      Launceston           4   12311200
      Hobart               3   12211100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01110100
      Casey               11   23432212
      Mawson               9   23322213
      Davis                9   12432221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     4    Quiet
05 Jan     4    Quiet
06 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 3 Jan. During the next 
3 UT days, 4-6 Jan, magnetic conditions are expected to be at 
quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depression can occur in the Southern 
hemisphere in response to the recent increase in the geomagnetic 
activity associated with the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jan   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    -7    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed across Aus/NZ 
regions on UT day 3 Jan, with minor depressions in the Northern 
Australian region during local day. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing 
were evident over several Australian ionosonde sites. During 
the next 3 UT days, 4-6 Jan, the MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.