[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 3 10:30:38 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 Jan, with no
flares. There is currently no numbered solar region on the visible
disk. Very low levels of solar flare activity are expected for
the next three UT days (3-5 Jan), with a very weak chance of
C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery on UT day 2 Jan. The solar wind speed
during 2 Jan was moderately enhanced due to coronal hole effect,
the speed ranged between 400 and 460 km/s, decreasing on average.
The IMF Bt was varying near its nominal values, 3-6 nT. The Bz
component of IMF varied in the range -3/+4 nT. During the next
UT day, 3 Jan, the solar wind speed is expected to vary in the
vicinity of 400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Cocos Island 1 10011110
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 5 11222211
Learmonth 4 11111221
Alice Springs 3 11011211
Gingin 4 21112220
Camden 8 33-12212
Canberra 2 01102100
Launceston 5 22212211
Hobart 3 11112210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11001200
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 18 33223354
Davis 15 33233251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3322 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 7 Quiet
04 Jan 5 Quiet
05 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 2 Jan. During the next
3 UT days, 3-5 Jan, magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
at quiet levels. Isolated unsettled levels are possible on 3
Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depression can occur in the Southern
mid and high latitude regions in response to the recent increase
in the geomagnetic activity associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 1-3 Jan. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 2 Jan in response
to the recent increase in the geomagnetic activity associated
with the coronal hole. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were
evident over several Australian ionosonde sites. During the next
UT day, 3 Jan, minor to moderate MUF depressions are still likely;
then the MUFs are expected to return to the predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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