[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 25 10:30:27 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 Feb. Currently, 
there is one weak numbered sunspot region (Region 2699) on the 
visible solar disc. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are 
expected for the next three UT days, 25-27 Feb. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery for 24 
Feb up to 24/1536 UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 520 
km/s to 440 km/s during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bt was steady 
near 5 nT and its Bz component was near 0 nT for most part of 
the UT day. The outlook for today 25 Feb is for the solar winds 
to remain near the moderately elevated levels in response to 
a polar connected equatorial coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22223001
      Cocos Island         3   22111010
      Darwin               5   22223001
      Townsville           5   22223001
      Learmonth            5   22223001
      Alice Springs        5   22223000
      Gingin               6   32213011
      Canberra             3   22212000
      Launceston           9   33323101
      Hobart               5   22223100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     7   22423000
      Casey               12   44322112
      Mawson              17   44332134
      Davis               10   33332112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   1425 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    12    Unsettled
26 Feb    12    Unsettled
27 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the 
Australian region and Quiet to Active levels over the Antarctic 
region during the UT day, 24 Feb. The two day outlook (25 - 26 
Feb) is for Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with a possibility 
of isolated periods of Minor Storm periods in the higher latitudes. 
The forecasted disturbed conditions are in response to a polar 
connected equatorial coronal hole soon approaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated 
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions may occur today (25 Feb), 
particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the 
recent weak geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs ranged from slightly enhanced values to periods 
of Minor depressions across most of the Australian region during 
the UT day 24 Feb. There were a cases of Sporadic E blanketing 
over most Australian ionosonde sites. For 25-26 Feb, MUFs are 
expected to be weakly depressed to near monthly predicted levels. 
The depression are the aftermaths of the observed disturbed magnetic 
conditions over the last few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 534 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   233000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list