[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 26 10:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 25 Feb. Currently,
there is one sunspot on the visible solar disc at N06E02 (AXX
classification). Very Low levels of solar flare activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 Feb. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery for 25
Feb up to 25/2000 UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 435
km/s to 390 km/s during the last 24 hours, currently near 400km/s.
The IMF Bt varied between 7 and 2 nT and the Bz component ranged
from -4 to +3 nT. The outlook for today 26 Feb is for the solar
wind speed to increase returning to slightly enhanced to strong
levels due to recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 00100221
Cocos Island 2 00100211
Darwin 3 11100222
Townsville 3 11100222
Learmonth 3 10100222
Alice Springs 3 01100222
Gingin 4 00100331
Canberra 1 00100210
Launceston 3 11100221
Hobart 2 00100221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00100110
Casey 9 12411232
Mawson 24 41201564
Davis 16 12211363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
27 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian
region and Quiet to Active levels over the Antarctic region during
the UT day, 25 Feb. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with
a possibility of isolated periods of Active or Minor Storm levels
in the higher latitudes for 26 Feb. The forecasted disturbed
conditions are in response to a polar connected equatorial coronal
hole soon approaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
The following two days 27-28 Feb. should gradually return to
mostly Quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions may occur today (26 Feb),
particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the
expected increase in geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to moderately depressed across
the Australian region during the UT day 25 Feb. There were also
isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing over Australian ionosonde
sites. For 26-28 Feb, MUFs are expected to be moderately depressed
to near monthly predicted levels due to continued geomagnetic
activity and low EUV levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 210000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list