[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 18 issued 2236 UT on 21 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Feb 22 09:36:39 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 21 Feb. Currently 
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
22-24 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO 
C2 coronagraph imagery for 20 Feb up to 21/1848 UT. The solar 
wind speed has decreased to near nominal levels, decreasing from 
640 to 350 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently near 
400 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 9 to 2 nT and its Bz component 
varied between -8 nT and +6 nT. During the next UT day, 22 Feb, 
the solar wind speed is expected to be near nominal to slightly 
enhanced levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   00220111
      Cocos Island         2   10210110
      Darwin               3   10220111
      Townsville           4   11220112
      Learmonth            3   11220210
      Alice Springs        2   00220111
      Culgoora             2   00220111
      Gingin               2   00120120
      Canberra             1   00120000
      Launceston           3   00230111
      Hobart               3   00230111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   00140000
      Casey               12   13442221
      Mawson               8   12223123
      Davis                7   12332121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2001 1110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled over the Antarctic 
region with isolated periods of Active levels during the UT day, 
21 Feb. Expect similar conditions to prevail today, 22-24 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated 
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions May occur particularly 
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent weak 
geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Feb   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
Australian region during the UT day 21 Feb. However periods of 
minor depressions were noted in the Northern Australian region 
during local day time hours and in the Southern Australian region 
during local night time hours. There were a few cases of Sporadic 
E blanketing over the Australian and other Oceanic ionosonde 
sites. For 22-24 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions can occur, particularly 
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent minor 
increase in geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   221000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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