[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 21 10:30:37 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 20 Feb. Currently
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
21-23 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery for 20 Feb up to 20/1748 UT. The solar
wind speed has decreased to slightly enhanced levels, decreasing
from 530 to 430 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently
near 450 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 5 to 2 nT and its Bz component
varied between -4 nT and +3 nT. During the next UT day, 21 Feb,
the solar wind speed is expected to be near nominal to slightly
enhanced levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21002100
Cocos Island 2 110012--
Darwin 3 210021--
Townsville 3 ---12111
Learmonth 3 21002200
Alice Springs 3 210021--
Culgoora 2 20002100
Gingin 5 210032--
Canberra 1 10002100
Launceston 3 21002200
Hobart 1 10002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 200021--
Casey 14 433232--
Mawson 9 323221--
Davis 12 32432140
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 5411 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 6 Quiet
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet levels across
the Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled over the Antarctic
region with isolated periods of Active levels during the UT day,
20 Feb. Expect similar conditions to prevail today, 21 February
and Quiet to Unsettled conditions with a possibility of isolated
Active periods for 22-23 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions May occur particularly
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent geomagnetic
activity and low EUV levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 20 Feb with isolated periods of depressions noted
over the Southern Australian region during local night time hours.
There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian
ionosonde sites. For 21-23 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions
can occur, particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence
of the recent minor increase in geomagnetic activity and low
EUV levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 499000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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