[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 20 10:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 Feb. Currently 
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
20-22 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO 
C2 coronagraph imagery for 19 Feb up to 19/1736 UT. The solar 
wind speed was enhanced ranging from 640 to 520 km/s and is currently 
near 520 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 8 to 3 nT and its Bz component 
varied between -6 nT and +5 nT. During the next UT day, 20 Feb, 
the solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease as the 
recurrent coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23224232
      Cocos Island         8   22113232
      Darwin              12   33214232
      Townsville          13   33224233
      Learmonth           14   23225232
      Alice Springs       11   23224232
      Culgoora             9   23213232
      Gingin              13   22224342
      Canberra             7   22213221
      Launceston          12   23224332
      Hobart              10   23213331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    18   24235341
      Casey               29   36534243
      Mawson              57   55433477
      Davis               40   45434473

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             11   4131 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb    11    Unsettled
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Minor Storm levels 
across the Australian region and the Antarctic region during 
the UT day, 19 Feb. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions with 
a possibility of isolated Active periods for the UT day 20 Feb 
and Quiet to Unsettled conditions over the following two days, 
21-22 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated 
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions May occur particularly 
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent geomagnetic 
activity and low EUV levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Feb    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
the UT day 19 Feb with isolated periods of depressions noted 
over the Australian region. There were a few cases of Sporadic 
E blanketing over the Australian ionosonde sites. The Antarctic 
region showed Minor depressions due to isolated periods of increased 
geomagnetic activity. For 20-22 Feb, MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions 
can occur, particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence 
of the recent minor increase in geomagnetic activity and low 
EUV levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 558 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   433000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list