[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 19 10:30:26 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 Feb. Currently 
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
19-21 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO 
C2 coronagraph imagery for 18 Feb up to 18/1736 UT. The solar 
wind speed was enhanced ranging from 460 to 620 km/s and is currently 
near 580-600 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 5 to 8 nT and its Bz 
component varied between -5 nT and +5 nT. During the next UT 
day, 19 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected to remain at enhanced 
levels due to the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22223322
      Darwin               2   10101111
      Townsville          10   32223322
      Learmonth           12   32323332
      Culgoora            10   32223322
      Canberra             7   22212322
      Launceston          14   23323433
      Hobart              10   22323322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
      Mawson              37   64423555
      Davis               35   44433655

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2432 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active
20 Feb    11    Unsettled
21 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 18 Feb. The Antarctic 
region was at Quiet to Major Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active 
conditions for the UT day 19 Feb and Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
over the following two days, 20-21 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions can occur in the Southern 
hemisphere as a consequence of the recent minor increase in geomagnetic 
activity and low EUV levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
20 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
21 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
the UT day 18 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions 
were also observed during local day. There were a few cases of 
Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian ionosonde sites. For 
19-21 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Minor to moderate depressions can occur in the Southern 
hemisphere as a consequence of the recent minor increase in geomagnetic 
activity and low EUV levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    8.9 p/cc  Temp:   257000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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