[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 10 10:30:22 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 09 February, 
with only B-class flares, all erupting from Active Region 2699. 
Region 2699 (S09E16) continue to show potential of producing 
more flares. Very low to low levels of solar flare activity is 
expected for the next three days (10-12 Feb), with a chance of 
C-class flares and a weak chance of an isolated M-class flare. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery 
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 09 February 
continued to trend near the background levels, 330-380 km/s. 
During the UT day 09 February, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 
2 nT and 6 nT and its Bz component was between -4 nT and 4 nT. 
During the next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to increase 
to moderate values due to coronal hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22100011
      Cocos Island         1   21000000
      Darwin               2   22100001
      Townsville           3   22100022
      Learmonth            2   22100011
      Alice Springs        3   22100002
      Culgoora             2   22100011
      Gingin               2   22100011
      Canberra             2   22100011
      Launceston           4   23201011
      Hobart               3   13200011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   12100000
      Casey               12   44421012
      Mawson              14   44211015
      Davis                9   34321012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb     5    Quiet
12 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 9 February. Mostly quiet 
and at times unsettled to active conditions were experienced 
in the Antarctic region. On 10 February the magnetic activity 
is expected to increase to unsettled levels due to coronal hole 
effect. Isolated active periods are possible. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for 11-12 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels, today (10 February).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Feb     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed across Aus/NZ 
regions on UT day 09 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
occurred during local day in Northern Australian region. There 
were some incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian 
Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (10-12 Feb) is for MUFs 
to be near monthly predicted levels. Mild depressions are also 
likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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