[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 9 10:30:34 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 08 February,
with only B-class flares, all erupting from active Region 2699.
Region 2699 (S08E27) continue to show potential of producing
more flares. Low to moderate levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next two days (9-10 Feb), with a chance of C-class
flares and a remote chance of an isolated M-class flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed
on UT day 08 February continued to trend near the background
levels of 380 km/s. During the UT day 08 February, the IMF Bt
fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component of IMF was
between -3 nT and 4 nT. The two day outlook (9-10 Feb) is for
the solar wind speed to be mostly near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12111002
Cocos Island 2 21110001
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 4 12121012
Learmonth 3 21121002
Alice Springs 2 12111001
Culgoora 3 12111002
Gingin 3 21121002
Canberra 3 12111002
Launceston 5 22221112
Hobart 2 12111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01111000
Casey 11 34331013
Mawson 15 22221036
Davis 9 13321014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 2000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 8 February. Mostly quiet
and at times unsettled conditions were experienced in the Antarctic
region. The two day outlook (9-10 Feb) is for the magnetic activity
to remain mostly at quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (09 February).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 7
February and is current for 8-9 Feb. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 08 February. There
were some incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian
Ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (9-10Feb) is for MUFs to
be between weakly depressed and near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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