[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 9 10:30:34 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 08 February, 
with only B-class flares, all erupting from active Region 2699. 
Region 2699 (S08E27) continue to show potential of producing 
more flares. Low to moderate levels of solar flare activity is 
expected for the next two days (9-10 Feb), with a chance of C-class 
flares and a remote chance of an isolated M-class flare. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed 
on UT day 08 February continued to trend near the background 
levels of 380 km/s. During the UT day 08 February, the IMF Bt 
fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component of IMF was 
between -3 nT and 4 nT. The two day outlook (9-10 Feb) is for 
the solar wind speed to be mostly near background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111002
      Cocos Island         2   21110001
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           4   12121012
      Learmonth            3   21121002
      Alice Springs        2   12111001
      Culgoora             3   12111002
      Gingin               3   21121002
      Canberra             3   12111002
      Launceston           5   22221112
      Hobart               2   12111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   01111000
      Casey               11   34331013
      Mawson              15   22221036
      Davis                9   13321014

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0011 2000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     5    Quiet
10 Feb     5    Quiet
11 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 8 February. Mostly quiet 
and at times unsettled conditions were experienced in the Antarctic 
region. The two day outlook (9-10 Feb) is for the magnetic activity 
to remain mostly at quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels, today (09 February).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 7 
February and is current for 8-9 Feb. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 08 February. There 
were some incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian 
Ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (9-10Feb) is for MUFs to 
be between weakly depressed and near monthly predicted levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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