[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 8 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 07 February,
with few B-class flares and one long duration, strong C-class
flare (C8.1), all erupting from activity Region 2699. Our examination
indicate that the C8.1 flare did not trigger a CME. Region 2699
(S08E41) continue to show potential of producing more flares.
Low to moderate levels of solar flare activity is expected for
the next two days (8-9 Feb), with a chance of C-class flares
and a minor chance of an isolated M-class flare. No LASCO C2
imagery data were available for UT day 07 Feb. Investigation
of other remote sensing imagery data indicate that there has
been no Earth-directed CMEs during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind speed on UT day 07 February dropped from ~440 km/s to 380
km/s, as the effects of the northern polar coronal hole diminish.
During the UT day 7 February, the IMF Bt was mostly steady near
4 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -3 nT and 3
nT. The two day outlook (07-08 Feb) is for the solar wind speed
to be near mostly near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11022000
Cocos Island 0 10001000
Darwin 1 11111000
Townsville 2 11022001
Learmonth 2 01021001
Alice Springs 1 10011000
Culgoora 1 10021000
Gingin 2 10022001
Canberra 2 10022000
Launceston 2 11022000
Hobart 2 11022000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00022000
Casey 9 34322100
Mawson 4 22122110
Davis 6 23232010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0212 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 5 Quiet
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet level across
the Australian region during the UT day, 7 February. Mostly quiet
and at times unsettled conditions were experienced in the Antarctic
region. The two day outlook (8-9 Feb) for the magnetic activity
to be mostly at quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (08 February).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 07 February. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were minimal. The two day outlook (8-9
Feb) is for MUFs to remain mostly near monthly predicted levels
due to increase in solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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