[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 11 10:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 10 February,
with two B-class flares and one C-class flare (C4.6), all erupting
from Active Region 2699. Region 2699 has now reached the solar
centre. Low levels of solar flare activity is expected for the
next three days (11-13 Feb), with a chance of C-class flares
and a weak chance of an isolated M-class flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 10 February continued to
trend near the background levels. During the UT day 10 February,
the IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and 10 nT and its Bz component
was between -3 nT and 7 nT. The two day outlook (11-12 Feb) is
for the solar wind speed to be mostly near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 13222221
Cocos Island 5 13122120
Darwin 6 13122221
Townsville 7 13222221
Learmonth 7 13123121
Alice Springs 6 13222220
Culgoora 6 13222211
Gingin 6 13222220
Canberra 6 13222211
Launceston 8 14222221
Hobart 6 13222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 02133200
Casey 24 36532232
Mawson 12 33223233
Davis 13 24333231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1300 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 7 Quiet
12 Feb 7 Quiet
13 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 10 February.
Mostly unsettled and at times active conditions were experienced
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet and at times unsettled
conditions are expected for 11-12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (11 February).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 10 February. There were some incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde sites.
The three day outlook (10-12 Feb) is for MUFs to be weakly depressed
to near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 22900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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