[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 26 10:30:18 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 25 December. 
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three 
UT days, 26-28 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 25/1736 UT. The solar 
wind during the last 24 hours increased slightly, though still 
near its nominal levels. The solar wind speed at the time of 
writing this report was 370 km/s. During this period Btotal was 
steady near 5 nT. Bz ranged from +/-4 nT. Expect the solar wind 
to remain near its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 
26-28 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11001111
      Cocos Island         1   11101001
      Darwin               1   11001101
      Townsville           4   11111122
      Learmonth            3   11002112
      Alice Springs        1   01001101
      Culgoora             2   11001121
      Canberra             2   11001111
      Launceston           4   11112112
      Hobart               2   11002111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   00002201
      Mawson               9   33012233
      Davis                8   23222231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     4    Quiet
27 Dec     4    Quiet
28 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels on 
UT day 25 December over Australia. Antarctica was mostly Quiet 
and at times Unsettled. Mostly Quiet levels are expected for 
the next UT three days, 26-28 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 25 December, there were MUF depressions over 
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted 
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the 
Sun. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for today, 
UT day 26 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec   -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 25 December, MUFs were weakly depressed to 
mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian region. 
Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region. Near 
predicted to weakly depressed MUFs are expected for the next 
three days, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    24600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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