[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Dec 25 10:30:17 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 24 December. 
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three 
UT days, 25-27 December. A CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning 
at 24/0648 UT was associated with an eruption from the far-side 
east limb and will not affect earth. No Earth directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery up to 24/1936 UT. 
The solar wind during the last 24 hours was mostly steady, near 
its nominal levels of 330 km/s. During this period Btotal ranged 
between 2 nT and 6 nT. Bz ranged from +/-3 nT. Expect the solar 
wind to remain near its nominal levels for the next three UT 
days, 25-27 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111021
      Cocos Island         2   11010021
      Darwin               3   11111022
      Townsville           4   11112022
      Learmonth            3   20022021
      Alice Springs        3   11011022
      Culgoora             2   10111011
      Canberra             2   10111011
      Launceston           4   11112022
      Hobart               2   11111011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001011
      Mawson               6   22122023
      Davis                9   ---32132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     4    Quiet
26 Dec     4    Quiet
27 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels on 
UT day 24 December over the Australian and Antarctica region. 
Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next UT three days, 
25-27 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to weakly depressed MUFs were observed 
over most regions on UT day 24 December. Similar HF propagation 
conditions are expected for today, UT day 25 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Dec   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 24 December, MUFs were weakly depressed to 
mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian region. 
Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region. Near 
predicted to weakly depressed MUFs are expected for the next 
three days, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    23100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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