[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 27 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 26 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 27-29 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 26/1700 UT. The solar
wind during the last 24 hours was mostly steady, near its nominal
levels of 350 km/s. During this period Btotal was steady near
4 nT. Bz ranged from +/-4 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain
near its nominal levels for the next two UT days, 27-28 December.
>From UT day 29 December or thereabout, the solar wind is expected
to enhance in response to the high speed streams associated with
a positive polarity northern polar coronal hole
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 3 12112110
Alice Springs 1 01002001
Culgoora 3 11102111
Canberra 2 01102101
Launceston 4 12212111
Hobart 2 02112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01103000
Mawson 6 22213220
Davis 7 22323210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 4 Quiet
28 Dec 4 Quiet
29 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels on
UT day 26 December over Australia and Antarctica. Mostly Quiet
levels are expected for the next two UT days, 27-28 December.
Conditions may reach unsettled levels and occasionally to active
levels in response to the corotation interaction region (CIR)
ahead of the high speed streams (HSS) associated with the approaching
polar coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 26 December, there were MUF depressions over
the Southern mid and high latitude regions compared to the monthly
predicted levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected
for today, UT day 27 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec -48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec -40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec -40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Dec -30 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-29 Dec. On UT day 26 December, MUFs were
mostly depressed compared to the predicted monthly values across
the Australian region. Sporadic E layers were seen across the
Australian region. Depressed MUFs are expected for the next three
days, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 29400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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