[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 22 10:30:18 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 21 December. 
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three 
UT days, 22-24 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 21/2000 UT. The solar 
wind during the last 24 hours decreased from 550 km/s to 400 
km/s. This was in response to the waning effects of a recurrent 
negative polarity coronal hole. During this period Btotal was 
between 2 nT and 5 nT. Bz ranged from +4/-4 nT. Expect the solar 
wind to further decline and return to nominal levels over the 
next two UT days, 22 - 23 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011011
      Cocos Island         2   11111010
      Darwin               2   11011011
      Townsville           2   11011021
      Learmonth            4   21111022
      Alice Springs        2   11011011
      Culgoora             2   21011011
      Canberra             2   11011011
      Launceston           4   22111022
      Hobart               2   12110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Mawson              17   42222254
      Davis               15   33332151

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              6   2231 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     4    Quiet
23 Dec     4    Quiet
24 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet conditions 
during UT day 21 December. Antarctica was mostly Quiet to Active. 
The observed sporadic disturbed magnetic conditions in the high 
latitude regions were due to the coronal hole effects. Mostly 
Quiet conditions was expected for the next UT three days 22-24 
December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: There were MUF depressions over the Southern high latitude 
regions as compared to the monthly predicted levels due to very 
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar HF propagation 
conditions are expected for today, UT day 22 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 21 December, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Australian region. Sporadic E layers 
were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Near 
predicted to weakly depressed MUFs are expected for the next 
three days, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 562 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   242000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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