[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 23 10:30:18 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 22 December. 
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three 
UT days, 23-25 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 22/1936 UT. The solar 
wind during the last 24 hours continued to decline in response 
to the waning effects of a recurrent negative polarity coronal 
hole. The solar wind speed at the time of writing this report 
was near its nominal level of 375 km/s. During this period Btotal 
was mostly steady near 4 nT. Bz ranged from +4/-4 nT. Expect 
the solar wind to remain near its nominal levels for the next 
three UT days (23-25 December).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001011
      Cocos Island         1   21000000
      Darwin               1   11001001
      Townsville           2   12001011
      Learmonth            3   21012011
      Alice Springs        1   11001001
      Culgoora             1   11001011
      Canberra             1   11001011
      Launceston           3   12102111
      Hobart               2   12001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001010
      Mawson               8   33111123
      Davis                7   23321112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
     

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1011 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     4    Quiet
24 Dec     4    Quiet
25 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels during 
UT day 22 December over the Australian and Antarctica region. 
Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next UT three days, 
23-25 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 22 December, there were MUF depressions over 
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted 
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the 
Sun. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for today, 
UT day 23 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Dec   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 22 December, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Australian region. Sporadic E layers 
were seen across the Australian region. Near predicted to weakly 
depressed MUFs are expected for the next three days, as a consequence 
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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