[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 21 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 20 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 21-23 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 20/1724 UT. The solar
wind was at strong levels on UT day 20 December due to the effects
of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind
speed ranged from 650 km/s to 520 km/s during the last 24 hours
and is currently near 520 km/s. During this period Btotal remained
between 2 nT and 8 nT. Bz ranged from +5/-6 nT. Expect the solar
wind to gradually return to nominal levels over the next two
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 32311222
Cocos Island 5 22211221
Darwin 7 22311222
Townsville 8 32311222
Learmonth 9 32312231
Alice Springs 8 32311222
Culgoora 5 22311111
Canberra 8 33311121
Launceston 11 33422222
Hobart 7 23311122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 22311111
Mawson 22 44332354
Davis 31 34533464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0112 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec 4 Quiet
23 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions. Antarctica was mostly Unsettled to Active. Mostly
Quiet conditions with isolated periods of Unsettled levels expected
today, 21 December, and Quiet conditions for the following two
days 22-23 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There were MUF depressions up to 20% over parts of the
Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted levels
due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
depressions up to 15%-20% are expected to persist for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 20 December
and is current for 21 Dec only. On UT day 20 December, there
were near predicted values to moderate MUF depressions across
the Australian region. Sporadic E layers were seen across the
Australian region and in Antarctica. Near predicted to moderate
depressions are expected for the next three days, as a consequence
of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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