[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 20 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 19 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 20-22 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 19/1948 UT. The solar
wind was at moderate levels on UT day 19 December due to the
effects of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. The solar
wind speed ranged from 400 km/s to 530 km/s during the last 24
hours and is currently near 520 km/s. During this period Btotal
remained between 4 nT and 9 nT. Bz ranged from +/-4 nT. Expect
the solar wind to gradually return to nominal levels over the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12221222
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 5 12221212
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 5 11221222
Alice Springs 5 12221212
Culgoora 5 12221122
Canberra 5 12221122
Launceston 8 12231232
Hobart 5 12221122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 01220121
Mawson 11 33322223
Davis 13 33442212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 6 Quiet
22 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with isolated
cases of Unsettled conditions. Antarctica was mostly Unsettled.
Mostly Quiet conditions with isolated periods of Unsettled levels
expected today, 20 December, and Quiet conditions for the following
two days 21-22 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There were MUF depressions up to 15% over parts of the
Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted levels
due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
depressions up to 15%-20% are expected to persist for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 17 December
and is current for 18-20 Dec. On UT day 19 December, there were
near predicted values to minor MUF depressions across the Australian
region. Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region
and in Antarctica. Near predicted to moderate depressions are
expected for the next three days, as a consequence of the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 88000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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