[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 10 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 9 December.
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S06W88) on the
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 10-12 December.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 9 December, the solar wind speed was high,
varying between 520 km/s and 630 km/s, currently at 630 km/s.
This is due to high-speed solar wind streams associated with
a large recurrent coronal hole. During the last 24 hours, the
total IMF (Bt) varied between 5 nT and 11 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and +10 nT and was
mostly positive. The solar wind speed is expected to be enhanced
during the next 2 UT days, 10-11 December, as the effects of
the coronal hole persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22112222
Cocos Island 5 21112212
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 7 22123222
Learmonth 9 22123323
Alice Springs 6 02113222
Culgoora 6 22112222
Gingin 9 22222323
Canberra 6 22112222
Launceston 8 23212322
Hobart 5 22112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 21011211
Casey 34 56543334
Mawson 22 33323355
Davis 23 34433345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 2232 1311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 9 December. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. This was in response to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a large recurrent coronal
hole. During the next two UT days, 10-11 December, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels as the effects of the coronal hole persist. There is a
chance for isolated active periods to occur on 10 December because
the solar wind speed is still high.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 9 December, a combination of very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun and geomagnetic disturbance
associated with the coronal hole caused significant MUF depressions
over the mid and high latitude regions in Southern Hemisphere
as compared to the monthly predicted levels. Similar depressions
are possible on 10 December as the solar and geomagnetic effects
persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec -46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec -35 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec -40 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec -35 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 9 December
and is current for 10 Dec only. On UT day 9 December, a combination
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and geomagnetic
disturbance associated with the coronal hole caused significant
MUF depressions across the Australian region as compared to the
monthly predicted levels. Sporadic E layers were seen across
the Australian region and in Antarctica. Depressions are expected
to continue on 10-12 December as a consequence of the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and recent
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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