[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 9 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 8 December.
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S06W79) on the
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 9-11 December. No
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 8 December, the solar wind speed was near
its moderate levels of 550 km/s. This is due to high-speed solar
wind streams associated with a large recurrent coronal hole.
During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 3
nT and 8 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between -5 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay
at these moderately enhanced levels during the next 2 UT days,
9-11 December, as the effects of the coronal hole persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22322322
Cocos Island 5 112122--
Darwin 9 223123--
Townsville 8 12322322
Learmonth 9 22322322
Alice Springs 9 223123--
Culgoora 8 12322322
Gingin 9 223123--
Canberra 5 12311201
Launceston 10 23322322
Hobart 9 22322322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 223334--
Casey 30 446432--
Mawson 17 334333--
Davis 21 33543432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1222 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 8 December. Quiet to major
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. This was in response
to high-speed solar wind streams associated with a large recurrent
coronal hole. During the next two UT days, 9-10 December, mostly
from quiet and at times unsettled levels are expected as the
effects of the coronal hole persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: A combination of very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and geomagnetic disturbance associated with the
coronal hole caused significant MUF depressions over the high
latitude Southern Hemisphere regions compared to the monthly
predicted levels on UT day 8 December. Similar depressions are
possible on 9-10 December as the solar and geomagnetic effects
persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec -35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec -30 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-9 Dec. A combination of very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun and geomagnetic disturbance
associated with the coronal hole caused significant MUF depressions
across the Australian region compared to the monthly predicted
levels on UT day 8 December. Sporadic E layers were seen across
the Australian region. Depressions are expected to continue on
9-10 December as a consequence of the continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun and geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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