[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 8 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 7 December.
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S05W61) on the
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 8-10 December. No
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. The corotating interaction region has arrived at the
end of the previous UT day, 6 December. On UT day 7 December
the solar wind speed was near its nominal values up to 0415 UT,
then it increased and at 1805 UT reached its peak value of 530
km/s; currently it is at 470 km/s. Through this period, the total
IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 12 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and +6 nT without prolonged
periods with negative Bz. The solar wind speed is expected to
stay at enhanced levels during the next 3 UT days, 8-10 December,
due to high-speed solar wind streams associated with the large
recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22322222
Cocos Island 7 213122--
Darwin 7 223221--
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 8 22322222
Alice Springs 7 223221--
Culgoora 7 21321222
Gingin 8 223222--
Canberra 5 11321111
Launceston 10 22332232
Hobart 8 22322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 112332--
Casey 47 457443--
Mawson 19 243443--
Davis 26 23443346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1121 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 7 December. Quiet to major
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. During the next two
UT days, 8-9 December, due to coronal hole effects the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to
unsettled levels with possible active periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed on UT day 7 December
in Southern hemisphere. Stronger depressions are possible on
8-10 December as a consequence of the continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun and recent increase in geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-9 Dec. Due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed
across the Australian region on UT day 7 December. Sporadic E
layers were seen across the Australian region. Stronger depressions
are possible on 8-10 December as a consequence of the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and recent
increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list