[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 7 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 6 December.
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S05W48) on the
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 7-9 December. No
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 6 December the solar wind speed was mostly
moderate, varying in the range 380-440 km/s, currently at 390
km/s. Through this period, the total IMF (Bt) stayed between
2 nT and 4 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) was mostly
negative, fluctuating between +2/-3 nT. At 1630 UT the plasma
density started increasing, possibly, due to arrival of the corotating
interaction region associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
On 7 December the solar wind speed is expected to increase up
to 550-600 km/s due to arrival of high-speed solar wind streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 3 11012102
Townsville 4 11122112
Learmonth 4 22112111
Alice Springs 2 11012002
Culgoora 2 1111200-
Gingin 4 22112011
Canberra 2 11112001
Launceston 4 12112112
Hobart 3 12112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11113000
Casey 13 44332112
Mawson 13 44222223
Davis 10 33322231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2100 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 6 December. Quiet to active levels were observed
in Antarctica. Due to coronal hole effects, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels
with possible active periods during the next three UT days, 7-9
December. The highest levels of geomagnetic activity are expected
for 7 December due to arrival of the corotating interaction region
and high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed on UT day 6 December
in Southern hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for UT
day 7 December due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Stronger depressions are possible on 8-9 December
as a consequence of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed across the Australian
region on UT day 6 December. Sporadic E layers were seen across
the Australian region. Similar levels of MUF depressions in the
Australian region are expected to continue on UT day 7 December.
Stronger depressions are possible on 8-9 December as a consequence
of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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