[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 6 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 5 December.
One sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S05W36) has appeared
on the solar disc visible from the Earth. The largest flare produced
by this group on 5 December is B1.5. Solar activity is expected
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 6-8 December. There
is a chance that the faint CME observed on 30 November will arrive
later today or early on 6 December. However, it is not expected
to have a significant impact. No other Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 4 December
the solar wind speed was mostly moderate, gradually decreasing
from 470 km/s to 400 km/s, currently at 400 km/s. This enhancement
in the solar wind speed is in response to the effect of the recurrent
coronal hole. Through this period, the total IMF (Bt) stayed
between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz)
was mostly positive, fluctuating between +4/-4 nT. On 5 December
the solar wind speed is expected to stay near its nominal levels.
However, at the end of the UT day 5 December or early on 6 December
the solar wind speed is expected to start increasing due to the
next recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21112011
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 2 21101011
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 3 21112011
Alice Springs 2 12102001
Culgoora 2 11102011
Gingin 2 21102001
Canberra 3 11112011
Launceston 5 22212112
Hobart 3 11112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11112001
Casey 15 44432122
Mawson 12 32312115
Davis 10 33422211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3201 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 10 Quiet to Active
07 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 5 December. Quiet to active levels were observed
in Antarctica. Due to coronal hole effects, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels
with possible isolated active periods during the next three UT
days, 6-8 December. The highest levels of geomagnetic activity
are expected for the end of the UT day 6 December and for 7 December
due to arrival of the corotating interaction region and high
speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed on UT day 5 December
in Southern hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for UT
days 6-8 December due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% to 20% were observed across the Australian
region during local day on UT day 5 December. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
levels of MUF depressions in the Australian region are expected
to continue on UT days 6-8 December. Stronger depressions are
possible on 8 December as a consequence of the predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 75800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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