[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 5 10:30:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 4 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the solar disc visible from
the Earth. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three UT days, 5-7 December. The faint CME observed on 30
November may have a geoeffective component. The CME is very slow
and may arrive on 5 December. On UT day 4 December the solar
wind speed was moderate, varying in the range 410-480 km/s. This
enhancement in the solar wind speed is in response to the effect
of the recurrent coronal hole. Through this period, the total
IMF (Bt) stayed between 4 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +5/-6 nT. Due to the coronal hole
effect the solar wind speed is expected to stay enhanced on UT
day 5 December. There is a possibility of some additional enhancements
in the solar wind speed on 5 December due to the CME observed
on 30 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22211322
Cocos Island 4 21111221
Darwin 6 12211322
Townsville 7 22221322
Learmonth 7 21222322
Alice Springs 7 12221322
Culgoora 5 12211222
Gingin 6 22211222
Canberra 5 12210222
Launceston 9 23321322
Hobart 5 22210222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11110112
Casey 17 35432223
Mawson 23 54422235
Davis 19 54423232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2121 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 18 Unsettled to Minor Storm
06 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
07 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 4 December
and is current for 5 Dec only. Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic
activity were observed in the Australian region on UT day 4 December.
Quiet to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Due
to coronal hole effects, the global geomagnetic activity is expected
to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated
active periods during the next three UT days, 5-7 December. However,
for 5 December there is a chance for an additional increase in
the geomagnetic activity up to active and minor storm levels
due to possible arrival of the CME that was observed on 30 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 35% were observed on UT day 4 December.
Similar and stronger depressions, especially in Southern hemisphere,
are expected for the UT days 5-7 December due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec -35 Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec -40 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
07 Dec -40 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 4 December
and is current for 5 Dec only. Due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 35% were observed
across the Australian region and in Antarctica on UT day 4 December.
Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region and
in Antarctica. Similar levels of MUF depressions in the Australian
region are expected to continue on UT day 5 December. Stronger
depressions are likely if the CME observed on 30 November will
arrive and this will result in a significant increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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