[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 December 18 issued 2337 UT on 03 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 4 10:37:33 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 3 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the solar disc visible from
the Earthside. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for
the next three UT days, 4-6 December. The faint CME observed
early on 30 November may have a geoeffective component. The CME
is very slow and may arrive around 5 December. On UT day 3 December,
solar wind speed was moderate, varying in the range 420-470 km/s.
This enhancement in the solar wind speed is in response to the
effect of the large recurrent coronal hole. Through this period,
the total IMF (Bt) stayed between 3 nT and 8 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +6/-7 nT. Due to the
effect of this coronal hole, the solar wind speed is expected
to stay enhanced on UT day 4 December and then gradually decline.
There is a possibility of some enhancements in the solar wind
speed on 5 December due to the CME observed on 30 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 11212322
Cocos Island 5 11112311
Darwin 6 11212312
Townsville 7 12212322
Learmonth 8 11222323
Alice Springs 7 12212322
Culgoora 6 11212322
Gingin 8 21222323
Canberra 5 11212222
Launceston 9 12223323
Hobart 7 12222322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 11134521
Casey 20 35532223
Mawson 20 42323453
Davis 15 33333342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 12 Unsettled
05 Dec 18 Active to Minor Storm
06 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 3 December. Quiet
to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Due to waning
effects of the high speed solar wind stream from the large recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels during
the next three UT days, 4-6 December. Isolated active periods
are possible for 4-5 December. However, for 5 December there
is a chance for an increase in the geomagnetic activity up to
minor storm levels due to possible arrival of the CME that was
observed on 30 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed on UT day 3 December.
Similar conditions are expected for the UT days 4-6 December
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun and possible increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec -35 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -35 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec -35 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 3-4 Dec. Due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed
across the Australian region on UT day 3 December. Similar levels
of MUF depressions in the Australian region are expected to continue
on UT days 4-6 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 77800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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