[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 3 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 2 December.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. The faint CME observed early on 30 November
may have a very weak Earthward directed component. The CME is
very slow and will probably arrive around 5 December if at all
it hits the Earth. On UT day 2 December, solar wind speed showed
a gradual increase from around 420 km/s to 470 km/s by 1900 UT
and then a gradual decrease to 435 km/s by 2200 UT. These enhancements
in the solar wind speed are in response to the effect of a recurrent
coronal hole. Through this period, the total IMF (Bt) stayed
mostly between 5 nT and 8 nT, occasionally dipping down to around
1.5 nT for short periods of time. On this day, the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +5/-6 nT. The particle
density stayed mostly between around 5 ppcc and 11 ppcc. Due
to the effect of this large and recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole, solar wind speed is expected to stay enhanced on UT days
3 and 4 December and then gradually decline. There is a small
possibility of some enhancements in the solar wind speed on 5
December due to a less likely hit from the CME that was observed
on 3 November. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for
the next three days (UT days 3 to 5 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 12222232
Cocos Island 5 11112231
Darwin 7 21122232
Townsville 7 12232222
Learmonth 9 22222332
Alice Springs 6 12222222
Culgoora 7 12232222
Canberra 4 01221220
Launceston 9 12332232
Hobart 8 12232232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 11243321
Casey 17 34442332
Mawson 31 33323466
Davis 16 23333351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0100 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 16 Quiet to active
04 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
05 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 1 December
and is current for 2-3 Dec. Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 2
December. Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a large and recurrent positive polarity coronal hole global
geomagnetic conditions may rise to active levels on UT days 3
and possibly 4 December. There is a small chance for isolated
active periods on UT day 5 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed on UT day 2 December.
Similar and even slightly higher levels of MUF depressions may
be expected on UT day 3 December due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day and due to the continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions are also likely to continue on UT days 4 and
possibly 5 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec -35 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
04 Dec -30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
05 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed across the Australian
region on UT day 2 December. Similar and even slightly higher
levels of MUF depressions in the Australian region may be expected
on UT day 3 December due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day and due to the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
in this region are also likely to continue on UT days 4 and possibly
5 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 15.2 p/cc Temp: 33700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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