[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 2 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 1 December.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. The faint CME observed early on 30 November
may have a very weak Earthward directed component. The CME is
very slow and will probably arrive around 5 December if at all
it hits the Earth. On UT day 1 December, solar wind speed showed
a gradual increase from 300 km/s to 420 km/s in response to the
anticipated effect of a coronal hole. Through this period, the
total IMF (Bt) slowly increased from 3 nT to 10 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +5/-5 nT. The particle
density first increased from around 7 ppcc to 25 ppcc by 1000
UT and then decreased to 10 ppcc by 2300 UT. Due to the effect
of this large and recurrent positive polarity coronal hole, solar
wind speed is expected to further increase through UT day 2 December
and stay at high levels (between 500 km/s and 600 km/s) on 3
December too. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for
the next three days (UT days 2 to 4 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Cocos Island 4 11111221
Darwin 5 11112222
Townsville 7 11112233
Learmonth 7 11112332
Alice Springs 5 01112322
Culgoora 5 11112222
Canberra 3 01102211
Launceston 9 12212333
Hobart 6 01202332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 01102211
Casey 13 33422332
Mawson 11 13212334
Davis 10 23323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 25 Quiet to minor storm
03 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
04 Dec 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 1 December.
Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a large
and recurrent positive polarity coronal hole global geomagnetic
conditions can rise to minor storm levels on UT days 2 and 3
December. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to decrease from
active to quiet levels through UT day 4 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
03 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed on UT day 1 December.
Similar and even slightly higher levels of MUF depressions may
be expected on UT days 2 and 3 December due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days and due to the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions are also likely to continue on UT day
4 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -7
Jan -8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec -40 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
03 Dec -35 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
04 Dec -30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 29 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. Due to very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30%
were observed across the Australian region on UT day 1 December.
Similar and even slightly higher levels of MUF depressions in
the Australian region may be expected on UT days 2 and 3 December
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Minor to moderate MUF depressions in this region
are also likely to continue on UT day 4 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 24700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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