[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 1 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 November.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. Due the eruption of a filament in the southern
hemisphere (around S56W09) a CME was observed in the LASCO images.
This CME does not seem to have any Earthward component, but further
analysis will be performed to ascertain. Over the last 24 hours,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 375 km/s
to 300 km/s. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 1 nT and 3 nT and the north south component of IMF (Bz)
fluctuated between +2/-1 nT. The particle density varied between
6 and 8 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is expected to gradually
increase on 1 December. The increase in the solar wind speed
on 1 December is expected due to the effect of a large recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole. The solar activity is expected
to stay Very Low for the next three days (UT days 1 to 3 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111010
Cocos Island 1 10110010
Darwin 1 11110010
Townsville 2 11111010
Learmonth 4 21221011
Alice Springs 2 11110011
Culgoora 1 11111000
Canberra 0 1-100000
Launceston 3 21211011
Hobart 2 21111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 8 33321022
Mawson 8 42121032
Davis 7 23222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 2000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 25 Quiet to minor storm
02 Dec 25 Unsettled to minor storm
03 Dec 18 Quiet to active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 28 November
and is current for 1 Dec only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 30 November. Due
to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a large
and recurrent positive polarity coronal hole global geomagnetic
conditions can rise to minor storm levels on UT days 1 and 2
December. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to decrease from
active to quiet levesl through UT day 3 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
02 Dec Normal-poor Fair-poor Poor
03 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 40% were observed on UT day
30 November. Similar and even slightly higher levels of MUF depressions
may be expected on UT days 1 and 2 December due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days and due to the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions are also likely to continue on UT day
3 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec -40 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
02 Dec -40 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
03 Dec -35 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 29 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. Due to the very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to
40% were observed across the Australian region on UT day 30 November.
Similar and even slightly higher levels of MUF depressions in
the Australian region may be expected on UT days 1 and 2 December
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are also likely
to continue on UT day 3 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 44000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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