[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 18 issued 2335 UT on 10 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 11 10:35:52 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 10 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the solar disc visible
from the Earth. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for
the next three UT days, 11-13 December. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
10 December, the solar wind speed was strong, varying between
600 km/s and 670 km/s at the start of the UT day, then gradually
decreased, currently around 580 km/s. This is due to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a large recurrent coronal
hole. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) varied between
3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to decrease during the next 2 UT days, 11-12 December, as the
effects of the coronal hole wane, reaching nominal values by
13 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22332211
Cocos Island 4 22221110
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 8 22332211
Learmonth 9 22332321
Alice Springs 7 22322211
Culgoora 7 22322211
Gingin 8 22322321
Canberra 8 22332211
Launceston 12 23432312
Hobart 9 23332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 22332210
Casey 31 46643222
Mawson 25 35443235
Davis 21 34543332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1100 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance for isolated
Active periods
12 Dec 6 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Dec 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10 December. Quiet
to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. This was in
response to high-speed solar wind streams associated with a large
recurrent coronal hole. During the next three UT days, 11-13
December, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at
Quiet to Unsettled levels as the effects of the coronal hole
wane. There is a chance for isolated Active periods to occur
on 11 December because the solar wind speed is still high.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 10 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on 11 December as the solar
effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec -28 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 10 December, there were minor MUF depressions
across the Australian region as compared to the monthly predicted
levels. Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region
and in Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for UT day
11 December, then conditions are expected to return to minor
to moderate MUF depressions as a consequence of the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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