[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 18 issued 2350 UT on 22 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Aug 23 09:50:04 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Aug. Region 2719 (S08E04) 
is the only numbered region on the visible disc remained quiet. 
The solar wind speed (Vsw) continued to decline under the waning 
influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Vsw 
was 538km/s at 00UT and is currently ~475km/s at the time of 
this report. Bz ranged between -4nT and +3nT over the UT day. 
Analysis of the CME feature observed in LASCO imagery from 22UT 
20Aug onwards directed to the west indicates a potential slow 
moving (~400km/s) glancing blow CME, with estimated arrival sometime 
in the early half of the UT day 24Aug. Solar wind speed is expected 
to continue to decline to ambient levels over the next 24-48 
hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels 
for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12102101
      Darwin               3   22101201
      Townsville           3   22102101
      Learmonth            3   11102201
      Alice Springs        2   11101101
      Culgoora             3   12102111
      Gingin               3   11102211
      Canberra             3   11202101
      Launceston           4   12202201
      Hobart               3   12202101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   01202000
      Casey                7   33211211
      Mawson              18   35324114
      Davis               15   33425211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3122 1123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     7    Quiet
24 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active
25 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region 
for 22Aug. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours. The 24Aug is expected to be initially be Quiet with 
possible Unsettled to Active conditions due to the potential 
glancing blow effect of a slow moving CME thought to have originated 
from a disappearing solar filament on 20Aug. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions expected 25Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid 
latitudes with minor MUF depressions and continued disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic 
activity. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
with possible depressed MUF's for mid latitudes and continued 
poor ionospheric support for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Aug    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% in the early half of the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions observed for some Equatorial regions 
as well as Northern AUS regions during local day. Enhanced conditions 
to notable disturbed periods for Antarctic regions due to recent 
geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly 
values for the next 3 days with chance of minor depressions for 
Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 601 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   422000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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