[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 18 issued 2353 UT on 21 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 22 09:53:14 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 21Aug. Region 2719 (S08E17)
is the only numbered region on the visible disc and was quiet
and stable. The solar wind speed (Vsw) remains elevated under
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole. Vsw was ~670km/s at 00UT and
steadily declined over the UT day to be ~550km/s at the time
of this report. Bz ranged between -2nT and +3nT over the UT day.
A filament located in the northern hemisphere around the central
meridian at 01UT on 20Aug began lifting off in GONG H-alpha imagery
with a possible associated CME observed in LASCO imagery from
22UT 20Aug onwards directed to the west. Further analysis of
the filament eruption on 19Aug at ~0534UT near region 2718 and
its associated CME has shown that there is a small chance of
glancing blow effects within the next 12-24 hours. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over the next 24 hours days
under a waning influence of the current high coronal hole. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21221101
Darwin 3 21111101
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 3 21212100
Alice Springs 4 21221101
Culgoora 3 21221001
Gingin 3 21221100
Canberra 4 21321001
Launceston 6 21322102
Hobart 6 21332101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 21332001
Casey 10 34322112
Mawson 16 43432224
Davis 13 33432321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 4412 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 12 Unsettled
23 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
for 21Aug. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected with possible
Unsettled periods for 22Aug. There is a slight chance of Active
to Minor Storm periods due to a possible glancing blow from the
19Aug filament CME over the next 12-24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions expected 23Aug-24Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
23 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes with minor MUF depressions and disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible
depressed MUF's for mid latitudes and continued poor ionospheric
support for high latitudes. MUF expected to be near predicted
monthly values for all regions 24Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions observed for some Equatorial regions
as well as Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity
over the last 24-48 hours. Similar HF conditions expected for
the next 2 days with MUFs mostly near monthly predicted levels
and the chance of minor depressions for Northern and Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Improving high latitude ionospheric conditions form
24Aug onwards.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 636 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 476000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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